Aussies not in glamour Oscar categories

LIKE a great Hollywood thriller, Monday's (AEDT) 82nd Annual Academy Awards ceremony will be filled with plot twists, shocks and a storyline about an underdog (The Hurt Locker) attempting to overcome great odds against a mighty nemesis (Avatar).

For patriotic Australian film fans used to watching the likes of Cate Blanchett, Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe compete for Oscars, this year will be different with not one Aussie nominated in the glamour acting categories.

Australia's three nominees - costume designer Janet Patterson, producer Carolynne Cunningham and short filmmakers Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey - are all highly-skilled, but if you bumped into them in the fruit section of your local Woolworths, you probably would not have a clue who they are.

What has the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, and the TV networks with the broadcast rights, excited about Monday's Oscars are the multiple story-lines to draw in bumper TV audiences around the globe.

In recent years the key categories were largely filled with nominees from dour, slow-paced art house films the average filmgoer ignored.

This year, a little film called Avatar (budget of $US400 million [$A442.82 million] and worldwide box office takings still rising at $US2.5 billion [$A2.77 billion]) will likely entice popcorn munching punters to tune in to the telecast.

Adding to the intrigue is Avatar, despite its top billing as the highest-grossing movie of all-time, is a good chance at being mugged by The Hurt Locker (budget of $US15 million [$A16.61 million] and worldwide takings a measly $US19.3 million [$A21.37 million]) for best picture and director.

Both films have nine nominations.

The David vs Goliath battle between Avatar and The Hurt Locker has extra spice with Avatar's director James "King of the world!" Cameron was once married to The Hurt Locker's director Kathryn Bigelow, who could make history as the first woman to win the director Oscar.

Elsewhere, you have audience darlings Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep duking it out for best actress, although a couple of youngsters, according to some unofficial polling of Academy voters, may cause an upset.

So, looking into a dusty old crystal ball bought at 1 dollar discount store at a Hollywood Blvd souvenir shop, here's how Monday's Oscars will likely play out ... or should play out.

BEST PICTURE

Every Hollywood studio executive dreams about an Avatar. The box office loot this sci-fi masterpiece by Cameron has generated is obscene. It took Cameron 15 painstaking years to make Avatar with technology that will re-shape the industry.

That said, you'd think it would be a fait accompli the Academy would toss a best picture Oscar on top of the billions of dollars Avatar has amassed and reward Cameron just as they did when he performed a similar feat with 1997's Titanic.

Most likely not.

All the momentum is with the little film that could, The Hurt Locker, a gripping Iraq war drama-thriller about a bomb disposal unit.

Aussie Guy Pearce gets blown up in the first five minutes. It has to be a great film when such a talent is splattered so early.

The Hurt Locker cleaned up at the recent British equivalent to the Oscars, the BAFTAs, with best picture and director wins.

The Academy this year expanded the number of best picture nominees from five to 10, with films that probably wouldn't have made it, like Carolynne Cunningham's South African-made sci-fi District 9, scoring a nod. Cunningham, however, has as much hope of walking to the podium as you and me.

THE WINNER: The Hurt Locker

WHO SHOULD WIN: Avatar. We'll be telling our great grandkids about this one ie: "Ah yes Jimmy, we drove our petrol powered motor vehicles to what we called a cinema, put on big goggles and watched it in 3D". Jimmy: "What Gramps? You only had 3D, not 20D, back in 2010?"

THE DARK HORSE: None here. Although, Pixar's latest animated gem Up deserves an honourable mention (not to be mistaken for George Clooney's Up in the Air.)

BEST ACTOR

Shut the gate, Jeff Bridges has bolted.

After four failed nominations, Bridges, playing a boozy, washed up, country music singer-dribbler in Crazy Heart has the Oscar in the bag. He's won every pre-Oscar award.

THE WINNER: Jeff Bridges

WHO SHOULD WIN: Jeff Bridges

DARK HORSE: Jeff Bridge's shadow as he walks up to get the Oscar

BEST ACTRESS

This is a great contest.

The five nominees have been out and about lobbying for votes at Hollywood industry events.

The studios backing the actresses have opened up their cheque books for full page ads in the Hollywood trade mags.

A few weeks ago it was a contest between first-timer Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side and 16-timer Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia.

Bullock, playing a middle American mother welcoming a homeless, young giant into her home and helping him to become a gridiron star, was just ahead of Streep after winning the Screen Actors Guild award, but the Oscars are a different, more conservative beast. There is a movement in the Academy pushing for Streep, who gives her usual superb performance as celebrity chef Julia Child, to win after missing out the last 11 times.

Some say Bullock's performance in The Blind Side was not up to scratch and point to last year's dismal All About Steve, a role that scored her a Razzie nomination for worst actress.

Two other first time Oscar nominees, Gabourey Sidibe for Precious, and Carey Mulligan, An Education, have generated momentum the past fortnight, particularly English rose Mulligan when she won the BAFTA.

THE WINNER: Meryl Streep

WHO SHOULD WIN: Gabourey Sidibe. A powerful performance of a abused teen with a healthy appetite

DARK HORSE: Carey Mulligan. She is storming to the finish line

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE: Sandra Bullock

SUPPORTING ACTOR

One of the five best supporting actor nominees, Woody Harrelson, summed this category up best last month at the Oscar Nominees Luncheon.

"I suppose there would be jitters if I thought I'd win, but I'm certain that I won't," Harrelson said in his thick Texan accent.

"Somebody is going to have an accent when they accept, but it won't be a southern accent."

Who Harrelson, nominated for The Messenger, was alluding to was Christoph Waltz, the Austrian actor who has dominated all major awards for his role as a Nazi in Inglorious Basterds.

Matt Damon, nominated for Invictus, has also surrendered to Waltz.

THE WINNER: Christoph Waltz. The guy spoke fluent English, German, French and Italian in this film stealing performance, making mega co-star Brad Pitt and his attempted country bumpkin accent look like amateur theatre.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Waltz

DARK HORSE: Harrelson. The former Cheers barman is nominated for The Messenger, a gut-wrenching performance as an Army captain with the job of informing families their son or daughter died. No, this is not a romantic comedy.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Another easy one.

Let's save ink and paper. There's no dark horse.

The winner is Mo'Nique.

Rumour has it the Academy has already etched Mo'Nique's name on this Oscar for her role as a nasty, despicable mother in Precious.

DIRECTOR

It's ex-husband versus ex-wife in the Cameron versus Bigelow showdown.

Bigelow will win because The Hurt Locker is one of the great war dramas of the last few decades, but it also helps that the Academy can make history by shattering the glass ceiling by rewarding her as the first woman to win the director gong.

THE WINNER: Kathryn Bigelow

WHO SHOULD WIN: Cameron. The guy is a freak. His last two films Titanic and Avatar have made more than $US4.3 billion ($A4.76 billion). He deserves a gold man for that.

THE DARK HORSE: Maybe Quentin Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds... but it is a very dark horse.

COSTUME DESIGN

Aussie Janet Patterson received the fourth Oscar nomination of her career for Bright Star, the English period drama starring fellow Aussie Abbie Cornish and directed by Kiwi Jane Campion. Patterson is yet to win an Oscar, but you get the feeling she does not care.

It is easier to get an interview with the Loch Ness Monster than the reclusive Sydneysider, who shuns publicity.

London's Sandy Powell is the frontrunner, a two-time Oscar winner for stitching the threads on The Aviator and Shakespeare in Love, and a nominee another six times. Powell is nominated for the period drama, The Young Victoria.

THE WINNER: Sandy Powell

WHO SHOULD WIN: Janet Patterson (because it would be nice if an Aussie won an Oscar this year and I'd like to see her speak in front of a billion people)

THE DARK HORSE: Colleen Atwood, for her work on the musical, Nine. The Academy also loves her with two Oscar wins and six other nominations over the years.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Don't count out Darwin director Luke Doolan and his producer mate from Wollongong Drew Bailey for their short film Miracle Fish.

The film critic from USA Today, Claudia Puig, ranked Miracle Fish equal second for the Oscar.

THE WINNER: Gregg Helvey for Kavi

WHO SHOULD WIN/DARK HORSE: Doolan and Bailey. Again, patriotism rules. They are good blokes too.

The Oscars, held at Hollywood's Kodak Theatre, are scheduled to begin at noon (AEDT) on Monday.